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英亚体育网页版_摩尔定律如何预测了计算机的未来


首页|San Francisco—onapril 19,1965,just over 50 years ago,Gordon Moore,Then the head of research for Fairchild semiconductor and la Moore predicted that every year we ' d double the number of transistors that could fit on a single chip of silicon so you ' d get twice as much comper “Moore ' s law”has essentially held up ever since-and,dessing Keeps chugging along,making it probably the most remarkable et旧金山——是50年前《电子杂志》(电子杂志)当时是煽动半导体公司(Fairchild Semiconductor)的研发负责人,后来沦为英特尔(Intel)的创始人的戈登摩尔。过去几年里,对本趋势的研究开始了,摩尔安装在单个硅芯片上的晶体管数量每年增加一倍,只要再花一点钱就能获得减少的计算能力。(威廉莎士比亚、温斯顿、硅、硅、硅、硅、硅)这一点在1975年成为现实后,摩尔将自己的预测大体上每两年翻一番。

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此后,摩尔定律基本实现,尽管稍加批评,但仍在大幅前进。因此,该定律可以成为历史上一项技术持续快速增长圆形指数的最著名例子。for the 50 th anniversary of Moore ' s law,I interviewed Moore,now 86,At the exploratorium in San Francisco,At a celebration in his为迎接Lasted This Long Moore定律成立50周年,他在旧金山访问了博物馆(Exploratorium),采访了现年86岁的Moore。那是戈登和贝蒂摩尔基金会与英特尔共同举办的摩尔庆典。

我回答他摩尔定律的有效性持续了这么长时间,他随后进来的收入是什么。“I guess one thing I ' ve learned is once you ' ve made a success ful prediction,avoid making another one,”Moore said。“I ' ve avoided opportunities to predict the next 10 or 50 years。“”我教你的一件事是,如果预测做得好,就不要再预测了。

“”我避免了各种机会,可以预测未来10年或50年会是什么样的情况。“But was he surprised by how long it has been proved basically correct?”?但是很长一段时间以来,摩尔定律被证明基本正确,他真的发生了交通事故吗?”哦,I'm amazed,“he said。”the original prediction was to look at 10 years,Which I thought was a stretch . this was going from about 60 elements on an integrated circuit to 60.“一开始是预测未来十年的情况,我以为都充分发挥了。

也就是说,集成电路的晶体管从约60个增加到6万个3354个,10年内不会增加1000倍。我以为这已经很可怕了。类似的情况持续了50年,显然是不可思议的。 你说我们总能找到。

不会有各种障碍阻止我们进入下一个阶段。但是奇怪的是,当我们有更相似的障碍时,工程师们找到了躲避他们的方法。

(大卫亚设,Northern Exposure)但是总有一天要停止。这种快速的指数增长总有一天会持续下去。

“but what an exponential it ' s been . in introducing the evening,Intel's c.e.o .Brian k rzanich summarized where Moore ' s law has theif You took Intel ' s first generation microchip,the 1971 4004,And the latest chip Intel has on the market today,the fifth-generation但是这是多么令人难以置信的指数在快速增长。主持人那天晚上的活动中,英特尔首席执行官Krzanich总结了摩尔定律的影响。

他说,只要想到英特尔1971年第一代微芯片4004和目前市场上推出的最近一代英特尔芯片,即第五代酷睿i5(酷睿i5)处理器,就能看到摩尔定律的力量。最近一代芯片的性能提高了3500倍,能耗为9万分之一,成本下降到以前的6万分之一。To put that another way,kr zanich said Intel engineers did a rough calculation of what would happen had a 1971 volks wagen beetle improved at the saatNow,you ' d still be stuck on the[highway]101 getting here tonight,but,boy,in every opening you'd be going 300 "。

科在奇大体计算,英特尔的工程师们根据摩尔定律,根据微芯片的发展速度,1971年发行的大众甲壳虫的性能不会有很大的提高。”数据如下。

(目前)这辆车每小时可以直达30万英里(约48英里),一加仑汽油(约4升)可以跑200万英里,只要花4美元就可以了!现在,虽然今晚你到达这里的途中树篱可能不在101号公路上,但是天啊,只要依靠,你们就不会直奔30万英里的时速。(威廉莎士比亚,哈姆雷特,时间)。“What is most striking in Moore ' s 1965 article is how many predictions he got right about What these steadily improving microchips would enable is…。

in telephone console Integrated circuits in digital filters will separate channels on multiplex equipment。[they]Will also switch telephone circuits and perform data processing。

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“摩尔1965年的文章中最令人惊讶的是,对这些急剧增强的微芯片可能带来的变化的很多预测都是正确的。《让集成电路填充更加多元件》(cramming more components onto integrated circuits)的文章标题为“集成电路将创造奇迹,例如家用计算机3354或至少连接到中央计算机的终端3354汽车自动控制和个人便携式通信设备”。

如今电子表只需要一个显示屏。在电话通信领域,数字滤波器的集成电路将在多路复用设备上有单独的地下通道。[他们]还切换电话线,扩展数据处理。

“Moore pretty much anticipated the personal computer,the cell phone,self-driving cars,the ipad,big data and the apple work”)基本上摩尔是个人电脑、手机、自动驾驶汽车、IPad,他是怎么做到的?我和摩尔开玩笑,他唯一漏掉的是“微波炉爆米花”。)“well,”said Moore,”I had been looking at integrated circuits-[they]were really new at That time,Only a few years…。

t to be a relatively precise prediction,But I knew the general trend was in that direction and had to give some kind of a reason why it was important to be a reason why it was“这是摩尔问的。”我还在研究集成电路3354[它们],几年来不到3354年,非常便宜。

有很多观点认为他们总有一天会变得廉价。从实验室负责人的角度来看,我开始发现这项技术的未来方向不能在芯片上容纳更多,这不会使电子产品看起来更便宜。

我不说这不是比较准确的预测,但大体趋势是这样的,它一定会得到减少电子产品成本的某些理由。Can it continue?every year some one predicts the demise of Moore ' s law,and they're wrong .“with enough good engineers working on it,he hoped”we won ' t hit a dead end.it's [a] unique technology。I can ' t see anything really comparable that has gone on for每年都有人预测摩尔定律会被超越,但他们都聚集在一起。

摩尔以许多杰出工程师的希望期待“我们会陷入绝境”。这是[一种]独有的技术。我没有找到任何能与之相比的技术能持续这么长时间的指数能快速增长。

”but let ' s remember that it was enabled by a group of remarkable scientists And engineers,In an America that did not just brag about being exceptsif We want to create more Moore ' s law-like technologies,We need to invest in the building blocks that produced that America。但是不要忘记,当时美国只吹嘘自己的优秀,没有投资基础设施和基础科学研究,而是设定了大胆的目标,如果我们想在摩尔定律上构建更多的技术,我们就应该投资实现当时美国的基本要素。(约翰肯尼迪,Northern Exposure(美国电视电视剧),)Alas today our government is not investing in basic research The way it did when The likesI ' m disappointed that the federal government seems to be decreasing its support of basic research,“said Moore”。that ' s really where these ideas get started . they take a long time to germin ate,But eventually they lead to some marvelous advances . certainling looking at the structure of the genes And one thing And another . these are all practical applications that are coming out of some very fundamental Earch “让步”基础科学研究知道这是产生想法的地方。

他们应该能长时间出生,但最终不会引起难以置信的变化。约翰肯尼迪,学)应该说,我们的整个产业是出于对一些材料量子力学的早期理解。我仔细观察了生物学领域目前的发展,也是对生命原理和基因结构等一系列问题的细致研究。 这些都是非常基础的研究带来的实际应用,我们在基础科学领域的地位正在相当严重地下降。

其他国家在基础科学或大型科学领域的国民生产总值比我们低,我们的研究进一步瓦解了基础科学。“how did he first get interested in science,I asked?我回答他,一开始是怎么对科学产生兴趣的?”my neighbor got a chemistry set and we could make explosives,“he said”in those days,chemistry sets had some really neat things And I decided about then I wanted to be a chemist not knowing quite what they did,And I…。

a couple ounces of dynamite makes a marvelous fire cracker.that really got my early interest in it.Duplicate that today,but there are other opportunities . you know,I look at what some of my grand kids are doing,for example,Those“我家有一个简单的化学实验玩具,可以制造爆炸物”,当时实验玩具里有有趣的东西,虽然不知道化学家到底在做什么,但似乎要求成为化学家。(威廉莎士比亚、化学家、化学家、化学家、化学家、化学家、化学家)我后来在家庭实验室辗转反侧,做了一段时间。那我就把它们变成可以生产少量硝化甘油的炸药.几盎司炸药可以制造有趣的鞭炮。

我知道这让我很早就对它感兴趣。你今天不能复制这一切,但现在还有别的机会。例如,我看到孙子们在摆弄机器人之类的东西。

这些都很有趣他们确实取得了很多变化。“Looking back on Moore ' s law and the power of computing that it has driven,I asked Moore what he thought was its most important contribution of我回答摩尔,回顾摩尔定律和不受他驱动的计算能力,指出在过去50年里,下一个贡献是什么。”哇哦!“He said。

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”you know,just the proliferation of computing power . we ' ve just seen the beginning of what computers are going to do for他说。“这是计算能力的爆炸性快速增长。

对于电脑不会为我们做任何事,我们现在看到的只是结束。”How so?怎么会出现呢?“哦,I think incrementally we see them taking over opportunities that we tried to do without them before and were not success ful,”he added“It ' s kind of the evolution into the machine intellig英亚体育网页版ence,if you wish,and this is not happening in one step . to It ' s happening in a whoo And several engineering teams across the country set out to do this . nobody got more than about 300 yards before there was a problem . two years They made 嗯,我希望我们不要越来越看。以前没有电脑的时候,我们想逃跑,但有一些不顺利的机会,现在是电脑做的。

“他补充道。”机器智能好像越来越进化了。如果你那么期待,并且这个过程不是一次完成的。

在我看来,那是很多变化的积累。我以前从未想过在高速公路上不会看到无人驾驶汽车。 就在几年前,[他们]被要求知道谁可以使用无人驾驶汽车,让他们从加利福尼亚南部到达,穿过舒哈维沙漠到达拉斯维加斯。

(威廉莎士比亚,Northern Exposure(美国电视),)来自全国各地的几支工程师团队开始做这件事。刚开始,任何队的车300字节的班车都不是问题。两年后,汽车在沙漠中可以经过整整25英里。我指出那是一个巨大的变化。

转眼间,他们已经通过了高速公路。我指出,我们不会在其他许多领域看到这种日益累积的变化。“did he worry,I asked Moore,whose own micro processors seemed as sharp as sever,That machines would really start to replace both whith我回答他,不担心,知道机器开始大规模更换蓝领和白领工人,导致很多人失业吗?”钱不是blame me!“he exclaimed!”I think it ' s likely we ' regoing to continue to see that . you know,for several years,I have said we're a two-class sstion . I think we ' re seeing the proof of some of that now .“不要怪我!“他大声说。

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”我认为我们可以继续看到这种现象。你说我们社会以教育水平为界分为两个阶层,这句话我已经说了好几年了。我认为我们现在看到了这方面的一些证据。

“When was the moment he came home and said to his wife,Betty,”honey,they've named a law after me?他第一次回到家,对他的妻子贝蒂说。“亲爱的,他们以我的名字命名法则。

”什么时候?answered Moore : " for the first 20 years,I couldn ' t utter the terms Moore ' s law . it was embar rassing . it wasn ' t a I got accustomed摩尔问道。“在最初的20年里,我仍然不能出口‘摩尔定律’这个词。太失望了。

那不是什么规律。最后我又习惯了,现在可以不改变脸色提及它了。(威廉莎士比亚,哈姆雷特,习惯)。

"Given that,is there something that he wishes he had predicted-like Moore ' s law-but did not?I asked。那么,他期待能像摩尔定律一样预测——,但实际上没有预测到什么呢?(威廉莎士比亚、Northern Exposure(美国电视剧)、Northern Exposure(美国电视剧)“the importance of the internet surprised me”,said me“it looked like it was going To be just another minor communication s network that solved certain problems . I didn ' t REE To open up a whole universe互联网的重要性让我感到惊讶。“摩尔说。

”一开始很明显,它不会沦为解决问题特定问题的最重要的通信网络。我没有意识到它不会带来无数新的机会,但它似乎做到了。我真的很期待我能在那一年预测这种情况。

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